General Election 2015: analysis

Hackney South candidates Charlotte George (Green party) and Russell Higgs (Independent) at the Hackney Citizen’s General Election hustings at the Arcola Theatre. Photograph: Eleonore de Bonneval

The Labour party’s candidates Diane Abbott and Meg Hillier have won their seventh and third mandates respectively to represent Hackney in the House of Commons.

In Hackney North and Stoke Newington, Diane Abbott was re-elected with 63 per cent of the vote and a majority of just over 24,000, a significant increase from the 2010 election (+8 per cent).

The Conservative party’s candidate, Amy Gray, came second by a handful of votes over the Green party’s Heather Finlay (both 15 per cent), followed by Simon De Deney of the Liberal Democrats (5 per cent) and UKIP’s Keith Fraser (2 per cent).

Hackney South and Shoreditch returned similar results, with Meg Hillier winning 64 per cent of the vote (+9 per cent since 2010) and extending her majority to 24,200 votes. The Tories’ candidate Jack Tinley finished second (13 per cent), followed by Charlotte George of the Green party (12 per cent), the Liberal Democrats’ Ben Mathis (4 per cent) and UKIP’s candidate Angus Small (4 per cent).

Overall results

Hackney General Election results 2005-2015, combined results across the two constituencies. Image: Davide Tiberti

Aggregated data for the two constituencies shows that Labour extended its dominance in the borough by winning 64 per cent of the vote, an important improvement from the 2010 elections (+9 per cent).

The Conservatives’ performance was perfectly in line with the two previous elections (14 per cent) but the party is now the second force in Hackney, a position they held solidly until the 2005 elections when they were replaced by the Liberal Democrats.

After their surprising performance at last year’s mayoral election – when Mischa Borris came second behind Jules Pipe – the Greens increased their share of votes by 9 per cent and are now the third party in the borough (13 per cent), marginally behind the Tories.

The Liberal Democrats, almost completely wiped out at national level, lost significant ground also in Hackney: minus 18 per cent since 2010 and now in fourth place (5 per cent).

Data indicates that most of those who previously supported the Liberal Democrats, undoubtedly disappointed by the party’s performance, are now voting either Green or Labour – something already seen at the 2014 mayoral election.

The Liberal Democrats are only a few percentage points in front of UKIP (3 per cent) which despite not performing as well as it did at national level, recorded a substantial increase since the 2010 election when it fielded a candidate only in the Hackney South constituency.

Turnout

Turnout in Hackney for General Elections. Image: Davide Tiberti

Previous elections have linked turnout to marginality: the safer the parliamentary seat, the fewer people voting.

Turnout was 57 per cent in both Hackney constituencies: below the national rate (66 per cent) but in line with other safe seats in London.

Some areas of the capital that saw either a swing or a close contest – such as Twickenham, Ealing Central and Acton and Finchley and Golders Green – saw level of turnout well over 70 per cent.